TAGS NOVEMBER 2025 MARKET & TENDER REPORT:
MARKET OVERVIEW:
As we enter the final quarter of what has been one of the most challenging years for our industry, manufacturers are gearing up for the crucial Thanksgiving and Christmas seasons.
The market is now slowly opening again after the Diwali holiday. While we have not seen evidence of bankruptcies, we understand many smaller companies have decided to leave the industry, and the Indian manufacturing base continues to consolidate.
The tariff question is back in focus with a recent Supreme Court hearing as to the legality of the President’s tariff process. Despite this, they are expected to remain in place at least into Q1 of 2026. In the meantime, India continues to lobby the US government to reconsider the 50% levied on polished productions.
There has been some talk of a reduction in tariffs to around 15%, but nothing to date has been formalised. The ongoing sale of De Beers continues to create a degree of uncertainty in the market. Angola have reportedly expressed an interest, alongside
Botswana looking to increase their holding, and other potential buyers and consortiums considering their options. The market feels that by early next year there will be much-needed clarity around the future of the company.
Despite all the uncertainty, there is some hope that the industry may have reached a turning point, but the season remains key to this becoming a reality.
ROUGH:
At the recent De Beers Sight from 3–7 November, Sightholders were under no obligation to buy their allocated boxes. However, it is understood that heavily discounted “Special Deals” were presented to some clients. The discounts on deals during the past few months have become greater each time they are offered, causing increasing criticism from the market, who are hoping for some kind of price stability. Some deals offered in November were believed to be discounted by as much as 45%. However, with 1st Half sales of $1.7bn, and a further $700m sold in Q3 (Sights 5/6), De Beers have reached $2.4bn in the first 3 quarters. They are now expected to reach an achievable total of $3.2bn for the year and have made significant inroads into reducing the stock they were holding earlier. This will be 17% higher than the 2024 sales total of $2.7bn. There is no expectation they will reduce prices this year.
Alrosa, having seen the volume De Beers sold in Q3, have been looking to do some deals with customers, and to that end the Head of Sales has been in Dubai this week. They have apparently offered in the region of $330m to clients in “deals”, but the goods are close to 30% ahead of market price.
The previous Sales Director and Head of Sales, who had many years of experience and a deep understanding of the market, both left in the past 2 months.
Luele are selling next week and will offer in the region of 900,000 carats. Catoca’s recent presentation sold for $75 p/c, and it is not entirely clear if all 10 boxes found buyers. With another round of Catoca available this week, there is no shortage of rough, but at these prices it will be unlikely the goods will be profitable.
ODC closed on 13 November. As expected, 3gr sizes and larger, and particularly 2cts up, performed relatively well, with sizes below 3gr all down in double digits against the market. They are understood to have offered in the region of 340,000 cts.
As the factories have opened, there has been patchy demand in the Grainers and smaller sizes, which overall remain weak. +2ct sizes and up are in steady demand, and for manufacturers who have produced the bigger sizes, they are expected to have made high single-digit profits during the year.
POLISHED:
In general, polished prices remain under pressure. Goods below 1.20 cts are slow-moving with little sign of recovery. +2cts and larger remain steady. At the present time, retail sales are the focus, as a solid level of seasonal sales will shape the start of 2026. Demand from India has been subdued because of the Diwali festivities.
While China has shown little sign of recovery in recent months, moving into gold purchases and exporting growing volumes of polished, there is evidence that perhaps the second-largest luxury consumer economy may have bottomed out.
LVMH are now set to open major stores in December and are considering further expansion. US demand has remained firm, and retailers are still able to offer at pre-tariff prices due to the large volumes of polished that were exported before April. High-end retail sales remain strong, with independent stores announcing a 13% increase in jewellery sales year on year. This was driven by a 15% increase in average sale price, with diamonds up 7%, according to official statistics.
TAGS TENDERS:
During the first week of November, we offered our first original Zimbabwe production in association with Taurum DMCC. We were pleased to welcome many new companies in addition to our regular clients. We are delighted to report the majority of goods were sold.
During the second week, we presented our regular Southern African production, consisting of a full range of sizes of high-quality goods, with an emphasis on the Special stones +10.8cts in both high quality and Fancy colours. We had attendance from more than 120 top performing companies from all the centres. Overall, we experienced a strong uptake in viewings, with particular demand for the larger sizes. 2–10 carat ranges showed some improvement with little change in sizes below 2ct. Large sizes +10cts continue to perform well. We sold in excess of 90% of goods presented to 44 companies representing all the centres.
During the week commencing 17 November, we have our next tender featuring a full range of goods and Single stones +10.8cts, in addition to the Zimbabwe goods from VAST Resources.
Following this, on the back of our success, during the week commencing 24 November we will present our second original Zimbabwe production in association with Taurum DMCC.
