TAGS JANUARY 2026 MARKET & TENDER REPORT

MARKET OVERVIEW:

We closed 2025 with glimmers of optimism for the forthcoming year, and while we are certainly not seeing the enthusiasm often witnessed in a typical January, some factors that negatively impacted last year have eased.

One thing remains likely, and that is that the market will undergo continued consolidation, as smaller and medium sized manufacturers leave the business, in the face of the continued challenges and lack of profitability.

Marginal mines will also struggle to survive. High fixed costs coupled with a significant shift in retail structuring going forward, will inevitably squeeze demand for natural diamonds and impact manufacturers.

ROUGH:

Changing consumer preferences, and reduced demand led to the lowest global diamond production for many years, at around 100m carats. This is unlikely to increase as we go through 2026.

The market expects the sale of De Beers to be concluded by the mid- year, with a high likelihood of Botswana increasing its 15% to a possible majority holding. Either way Botswana will be keen to increase its diamond marketing efforts and have a greater say in how its diamonds are promoted into the global markets.

De Beers will commence their first Sight of the year w/c 18 th January. We understand the Sight will be very small, and Sightholders will be able to defer smaller sizes and cheaper goods without penalties.

Officially no Sightholders have been removed from the list as expected, but ITO’s (Intention to Offer), have been made to a reduced number of Sightholder companies.

Despite the current disparity in prices between De Beers goods and the market, we do not believe they will reduce prices in most areas but will continue with the policy of ‘deals’ to selective Sightholders.

These deals however, may receive limited uptake, when both Catoca and Luelle goods come available from 20 th January, at more competitive prices. The influence of De Beers which for so long has shaped the markets decision making, will diminish in 2026 as its customer base reduces and lower production volumes persist. The new influence will likely come from Botswanas’ Okavango (ODC) which will increase its share of rough as it seeks contractual sales agreements.

Alrosa will continue to sell large volumes of its rough and Angola will expand production in what is hoped to be a more structured sales framework. It was reported this week that Angola 2025 sales figures were 17.7m carats raising $1.8 Billion. This is a 70% increase in volume and 21% increase in revenue on 2024 according to official reports. Growth was driven primarily through increased sales from the Luele mine, and the decision to not hold stocks as was the case in last year. Overall average sales price however declined by 29%.

We understand that in India rough stocks are now relatively low, and buyers are purchasing cautiously and selectively to fulfil around a 15 day production window. This underscores the lack of confidence in prices going forward.

Smaller sizes, and low quality goods remain difficult, and prices appear to be softening. As a result, many manufacturers in India are moving into +2ct sizes.These goods are therefore likely to see price growth during the year.

We believe that Alrosa stock held by the Gokran during last year has all now been sold. This coupled with the overall reduction in the global production we see, should mean that a degree of rough shortage in many areas will prevail throughout 2026.

POLISHED:

The market is still awaiting the full results of the Christmas season, but early indications point to a slight rise in US jewellery sales of 1.6%, well below the 3.9% recorded across all retail sectors (recorded by Mastercard).

December saw good sales. However, indications are that higher sales prices offset lower volumes (-13%). Consumer preferences are firmly changing, with a greater emphasis on “experience purchases”, such as travel, dining etc. leaving less room for ‘lasting luxury’ purchases.

This has caused a dilemma for retailers. Lab grown diamond jewellery remains popular, and sales rose, with higher volumes offsetting declining average prices. As a result, retailers are enjoying high levels of profitability in this sector.

However, inconsistencies in the pricing of Lab Grown diamonds across Retail and online sellers, will become apparent to consumers, and retail margins will likely fall over time. This changing approach within the retail environment, accompanied by rising gold prices has led retailers to a change in product mix, which unfortunately has come at the expense of natural diamonds.

The move towards selective buying will no doubt shape future purchasing behaviours in the jewellery markets. The jewellery sector in America continues to reduce by around 3% per year, particularly in the Independent sector.

China remains in a period of stagnation, due to economic uncertainty which has curbed luxury spending, and increased competition from gold investment and Lab Grown Diamonds. India conversely expanded its demand for natural diamonds by 11% in 2025, securing its position as the second biggest global market after America.

In acknowledgement of this growth De Beers opened its 5th and largest flagship ‘Forevermark’ store in Mumbai recently. They aim to have 25 stores by the end of 2026 and continue to see India as central to their consumer driven growth strategy.

TAGS TENDERS:

We commenced the year with our first tender running from 11th - 15th January. This was an original Zimbabwe production, and we were delighted to welcome senior Sales and Marketing representatives from ZCDC, MMCZ and Senior

Executives from the leading banks in Zimbabwe. The event presented more than 500,000 carats of RoM production. We welcomed an enthusiastic response from more than 130 companies, from several of the manufacturing centres.

Higher quality goods performed well, but in line with the market, cheaper goods continue to garner less interest. Despite this we are pleased to report we made sales of 100% of goods presented to approximately 50 international companies.

Our next sales event commences on 19th January and will contain a range of gem goods across all sizes.