TAGS Dubai Tender Report - April 2025

Market Report

In our last Report (March 2025) we were cautiously reporting a slight improvement in rough prices in certain areas, with a general improvement in market stability.

However, just one month later and due to the blunt application of US Govt. tariffs on imports in early April, we now find the market again in turmoil, with confidence shaken. While the overall effects across global economies and stock markets is well publicised, the effect on the diamond industry have also been severe.

In polished, despite the signs of a small improvement in the first quarter of the year, Indian exports of polished diamonds for fiscal year 2024/25 dropped to their lowest level in almost 20 years, with a 16.8% decline YOY. This was due to sluggish demand from both America and China.  Rough imports to India also fell by some 24%.

It is understood that in anticipation of tariffs, Indian manufacturers exported approx. $ 2.5 billion of polished to fulfill existing orders, and move stock to their offices in America, days ahead of ‘Liberation Day’.

In essence it is felt there is now sufficient stock in America to fulfill forthcoming demand at pre tariff value. Despite this spike in exports many feel it is unlikely Indian exports of Gem and Jewellery will recover this year.

In March, US jewellery revenue rose 3.7% and in the first quarter 2025 4.6%, due to consumers spending more on higher value jewellery pieces.  However, demand for lower priced pieces fell.  This shift to more expensive price points, could now come under pressure due to internal issues in the American economy, the possible global tariff war, and resulting economic volatility.

While jewellery revenue rose, the unit sales dropped by close to 7%, with average retail prices growing by 11% year on year.  The fall in demand for lower priced jewellery may well be indicative of a faltering US economy.  In past years a drop in jewellery demand has been a typical reaction to economic downturn, or when components such as gold rise dramatically. Either way we are seeing a specific shift in demand which could be a warning sign of a downward trend in the US economy.

Lab grown jewellery continues to fill the gaps, as a more affordable alternative.

On rough supply, as we mentioned, sentiment in March was improving and demand for goods 10cts and below was steady after many difficult months.

De Beers announced sales for the first two Sights of 2025, reporting a total of $520m, with Sight 3 estimated in region of $250m.  A total for Q1 of approximately $780m.

In addition to this we understand Alrosa have sold approx. $600m during Q1.

On top of this significant businesses (potentially $200-300m) of Angola goods (Catoca and Luelle mainly) have come onto the market in Q1. When added to other smaller mines and producers, cumulatively this level of rough is a significant volume for the current market conditions. The effect of these volumes has impacted the overall confidence of the market and softened rough prices, particularly in goods below 6grs.

With the May summer holidays commencing in India, we have seen buyers becoming more cautious in their buying. Reports from recent sales events indicate a reduction in price of around 5-10% on smaller sizes, with ODC seeing a reduction in sales price of around 5% overall on last month. 

TAGS Tenders

TAGS presented 2 tenders during the month. The first being a broader range of both Origin, Size and qualities.  The second tender, which closed on 1st May, was our regular Southern African productions which focus more heavily on high quality +10.8ct and goods above 2cts.

Value presented across the two events was approx. $30m.

Both events attracted more than 100 companies from all the leading manufacturing centres, although slightly fewer Israeli buyers were in evidence as a result of the recent Pesach holidays.

The first tender had a sell through close to 50% with stronger sales in the higher quality larger size ranges, and weaker results in small cheaper goods.

The second event with the emphasis on better quality bigger sizes achieved a sales level of just over 75%. Together the 2 events presented approximately $30m rough.

Our forthcoming tender will take place in Dubai from the 19th - 23rd May.