TAGS August/ September 2026- Market & Tender Report

With August holidays over, the markets in Antwerp and Israel have reopened in a slightly more positive mood than at closure in July. Natural global production has been in steep decline since 2018, and this year we have witnessed an acceleration in mine closures against a backdrop of falling prices and rising operating costs.

By the year end, global production is estimated to be approximately 90-95m carats. Rough prices are down around 25% year on year. Some industry pundits feel that this significant fall in rough supply is beginning to support prices, and we are seeing encouraging signs in terms of slow price recovery. To be sustainable, however, we need to see this price appreciation driven by both demand and supply factors.

Price growth could also have a positive effect on the demand disparity we have witnessed, where high-end natural stones have thrived, and smaller sizes have struggled in the face of more affordable LGD. An increase in natural diamond prices could increase consumers' perception of the sustainability of natural stones versus LGD. For this to be successful, the industry must not discount natural diamond prices and allow consumers to pay a premium for the natural product. This will require correct marketing to position the natural product as the premium product it is.

This was captured clearly by Gareth Penny, who is understood to be the leading candidate to take over De Beers, at the recent CIBJO Congress:

“We need to sell meaning, not minerals.” If we don’t sell a dream, over time, our industry will disappear,” he said. “People don’t buy what a luxury product is. They are not buying the leather or the products or components. They are buying what the product says about them. That’s what brands do. They tell a story about the person wearing the brand.” Our task is not to win a contest with synthetic diamonds. It is to restore meaning to natural diamonds so that comparison becomes irrelevant.” Only a natural diamond can say something powerful,” he added. “‘I am loved. I have been chosen. Someone has made a commitment to me.’”

ROUGH

We understand that the De Beers Sight (17-21st August) was in the range of $250-300m with the majority sold directly to Sightholders and the balance presented by ODC. We don’t believe ‘deals’ were presented to selected Sightholders this month. De Beers prices remained steady which has helped instil further confidence into the market. Resultant demand was strong across the board, and this was also seen in the smaller sizes as evidenced by the results of ODC. Some companies have reported that the recent De Beers Sight was the best in the past 3 years, and Sightholders are finally a happy group.

Overall, in the market, goods +5cts which have performed strongly over the past months, have slowed slightly, while 3-8grs are behaving more positively. Shortages in cheaper goods have also led to stronger demand, but these goods need to recover from a very low base. Alrosa are rumoured to have sold considerable volumes of rough to a few select companies, and these goods appear to have been quietly absorbed into the market.

As mentioned in previous reports Angola have maintained strong sales of Catoca and most of the leading mines into the market which has been welcomed by the Indian buyers. The leading diamond centres continue to re-establish their positions, and status in the industry with Antwerp lobbying for its continued zero tariff exemption for European sourced diamonds. Meanwhile, Dubai has maintained its record diamond trading levels, and Qatar has now established a diamond bourse which has been welcomed as the newest member of the World Federation of Diamond Bourses.

Very importantly, in what is perhaps the most significant move of all, India has introduced legislation enabling foreign companies to sell rough tax free in its Special Notified Zones. This is likely to strengthen Indias competitive edge and give a new dimension to the diamond pipeline.

POLISHED

Post holiday activity in US is said to be strong, and manufacturing centres are happy with the uptake in America. 1.00ct polished has increased in price for the first time in over a year. Similarly, 0.50 and 0.30pts have both made small increases. In Antwerp the market is coming back to life after the holiday period, with larger sized polished +3ct and up in short supply.

In India prices of smaller polished 0.30pts are improving due to shortages. Overall, the mood is positive in India following the recent IIJS show which showed strong domestic demand pulling in around 50,000 visitors. China remains lacklustre, and while the leading Chinese retailers have reported strong quarterly sales, this is mostly attributed to gold sales rather that diamond jewellery. Hong Kong buyers await the The Jewellery and Gem World Show in mid-September.

There have been interesting comments coming out of Russia as they announce a big expansion of their domestic polishing capacity. The project, which will commence in Q1 2027 will provide Russian manufacturers with high quality rough at prices intended to make the manufacturing centre profitable and bring in foreign investment. At the same time the government have proposed the introduction of an 8% export duty on rough larger than 0.45pts. Russian diamonds remain sanctioned by the G7 countries, representing two thirds of the global jewellery market. If sanctions remain in place Alrosa would find itself heavily dependant on markets such as India and China.

With the decline in prices of rough diamonds and high mining costs, this is another example of a producer country hoping to extract better margins by moving downstream. At the same time Alrosa is adapting to a world where both demand and access to buyers have become more constrained.

TAGS TENDERS

During August TAGS presented another successful sale of original Zimbabwe goods, and a further tender from Zimbabwe closed on 7th Sept. This tender was another success, where we saw increased price realisation in the lower qualities, reflecting the overall improvements in the market.

Our regular tender of High-quality Southern African Productions took place in Dubai from 14-18th Sept. As usual the tender was well received by our buyers and achieved a strong sell through rate with the majority of goods being sold successfully.

Regular tenders in Johannesburg continue to grow, as more suppliers and buyers participate in our events. Our latest Johannesburg sale ran from 22nd – 28th September and achieved a sell through rate of over 80% of goods being successfully sold. The tender showcased a wide selection of original South African productions from our mining partners and we welcomed many international and local buying companies, of which 45% were successful in their bidding.

Our highly anticipated tender in partnership with SODIAM will take place in Luanda at SODIAM’s facilities and will run from the 30th of September until 8th of October. This sale will feature an exceptional selection of +10.8 ct rough diamonds from 12 Angolan mining productions, including Lulo, Catoca, Luele, Somiluana, Kaixepa, Mussende and others. The offering includes several notable large stones as well as a selection of pink diamonds.